Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Reds NYM @ CIN

NEW YORK

METSNYM

32-39  |  Road

0
FINAL
Mon, Jun 15 • 7:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

33-37  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Jonathan Pintaro
STARTING PITCHER

Jonathan Pintaro

#91 | Relief Pitcher
@
Chase Petty
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Petty

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jonathan Pintaro None-None 2.61 -- 3.2 4
Chase Petty None-None 4.70 -- 2.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.61 Ldr ERA 4.70
-- WHIP --
3.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 2.1
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
70%
📊
REDS
30%
METS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

40.1%

Reds Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.3%

CIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5
NEW YORK
4
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 NYM @ CIN 9 - 1
Jun 16, 2026 NYM @ CIN 3 - 5
Jun 15, 2026 NYM @ CIN 0 - 12
May 27, 2026 CIN @ NYM 2 - 4
May 26, 2026 CIN @ NYM 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.705 ▲
OPS
.699
204
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +27.4% more
New York: 9.1 vs Cincinnati: 6.6
Total Bases (L5) +20.4% more
New York: 15.5 vs Cincinnati: 12.3
Runs per Game (Season) +4.6% more
New York: 4.3 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Batting Avg (Season) +1.0%
New York: 23.9% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.0 0
CIN Score 4.0 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 9.1 9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.6 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 7.7 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.3 / 15.5 19.0 / 8.0
Walks 4.0 / 2.4 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
NYM
CIN
NYM
ML
55% 88-71
50% 79-80
49% 79-81
48% 76-83
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 93-66
50% 80-80
49% 78-81
TTL
53% 81-73-5
55% 80-66-13
54% 83-72-5
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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