MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
36-36 | Road
0
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
38-33 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Gusto
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Shugart
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gusto | None-None | 7.24 | -- | 4.2 | 1 |
| Chase Shugart | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.24
ERA
Ldr 3.00
--
WHIP
--
4.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
60%
PHILLIES
40%
MARLINS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.3%
PHI By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5
MIAMI
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Miami
5
MIAMI
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Sim
Marlins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
MIA @ PHI
1 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
MIA @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 17, 2026
MIA @ PHI
5 - 6
Jul 29, 2026
PHI @ MIA
6 - 8
Jul 28, 2026
PHI @ MIA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.727
▲
OPS
.724
168
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.2% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+35.3% more
Miami: 11.0
vs
Philadelphia: 7.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+20.6% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Errors (L5)
+17.0% more
Miami: 0.8
vs
Philadelphia: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.0
0
PHI Score
4.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.7 / 8.6
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.0
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 11.0
13.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 13.6
17.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.2
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIA
PHI
MIA
ML
59%
97-67
48%
78-84
49%
80-84
55%
88-72
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
91-71
51%
83-81
54%
86-74
TTL
57%
88-67-9
56%
88-69-5
51%
78-76-9
53%
82-73-5
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