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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

40-27  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Jun 14 • 4:07 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

29-42  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Baker
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Baker

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Baker None-None 1.91 -- 1.0 2
Sam Bachman None-None 3.31 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.91 Ldr ERA 3.31
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
33%
📊
ANGELS
67%
RAYS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 33%
Under 0 67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

89.4%

Angels Cover

10.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

18.4%

LAA By 1-2 runs

5.4%

LAA By 3-4 runs

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
8
TAMPA BAY
3
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
5
TAMPA BAY
3
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
33% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (-4.5) Win
Proj Runs: -5.0
D
Sim Rays (-4.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 TB @ LAA 8 - 3
Jun 13, 2026 TB @ LAA 0 - 8
Jun 12, 2026 TB @ LAA 3 - 4
May 31, 2026 LAA @ TB 2 - 5
May 30, 2026 LAA @ TB 14 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.728 ▲
OPS
.679
169 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +11.0% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Home Runs (Season) +8.9% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
OPS (Season) +4.9%
Tampa Bay: 72.8% vs Los Angeles: 67.9%
Slugging Pct (Season) +3.3%
Tampa Bay: 40.2% vs Los Angeles: 36.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 8.0 8
LAA Score 3.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.5 / 7.7 5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.3 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 10.1 4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 16.3 / 9.7 9.0 / 22.0
Walks 4.3 / 2.3 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
TB
LAA
TB
ML
59% 96-66
58% 95-68
55% 89-73
58% 95-68
ATS
60% 97-65
60% 97-66
51% 82-80
55% 90-73
TTL
53% 83-74-5
47% 73-81-9
52% 82-75-5
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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