PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
38-32 | Road
0
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
42-26 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Shugart
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Ashby
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Shugart | None-None | 3.13 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
| Aaron Ashby | None-None | 2.72 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.13
ERA
Ldr 2.72
--
WHIP
--
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
58%
BREWERS
42%
PHILLIES
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
PHI By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Milwaukee
6
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Sim
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIL @ PHI
5 - 1
Sep 23, 2026
MIL @ PHI
4 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
MIL @ PHI
4 - 6
Jun 14, 2026
PHI @ MIL
0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
PHI @ MIL
9 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.724
OPS
▲
.743
3
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5033.3% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+50.4% more
Milwaukee: 2.1
vs
Philadelphia: 1.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+50.0% more
Milwaukee: 12.3
vs
Philadelphia: 8.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+46.9% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.0
0
MIL Score
6.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.0 / 9.5
10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.4
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
12.3 / 8.2
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
19.3 / 15.2
18.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.4 / 4.1
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
PHI
MIL
PHI
ML
62%
101-61
59%
97-67
52%
84-78
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
94-68
65%
107-57
48%
78-84
51%
83-81
TTL
40%
62-92-8
57%
88-67-9
50%
77-77-8
51%
78-76-9
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