Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Twins STL @ MIN

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

38-30  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Jun 14 • 2:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

32-40  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
George Soriano
STARTING PITCHER

George Soriano

#65 | Relief Pitcher
@
Yoendrys Gomez
STARTING PITCHER

Yoendrys Gomez

#94 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
George Soriano None-None 2.97 -- 1.2 3
Yoendrys Gomez None-None 4.01 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.97 Ldr ERA 4.01
-- WHIP --
1.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
67%
📊
TWINS
33%
CARDINALS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Minnesota)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

30.9%

Twins Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

STL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5
ST. LOUIS
7
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Win
33% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Twins (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 12.0
C
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 STL @ MIN 4 - 5
Jun 13, 2026 STL @ MIN 9 - 6
Jun 12, 2026 STL @ MIN 8 - 9
Mar 30, 2025 MIN @ STL 2 - 9
Mar 29, 2025 MIN @ STL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.691
OPS
▲ .720
167
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +27.0% more
Minnesota: 0.3 vs St. Louis: 0.1
Walks (L5) +24.1% more
Minnesota: 3.6 vs St. Louis: 2.9
Home Runs (Season) +12.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
OPS (Season) +2.9%
Minnesota: 72.0% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 5.0 4
MIN Score 7.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 11.0 13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 2.5 / 2.5 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 7.7 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 17.5 / 21.0 19.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.9 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
STL
MIN
STL
ML
52% 84-78
53% 85-74
50% 80-81
52% 84-77
ATS
59% 95-67
56% 89-70
59% 95-66
53% 85-76
TTL
51% 78-75-9
46% 68-81-10
53% 80-72-9
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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