Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Royals HOU @ KC

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

33-39  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Jun 14 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

28-43  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Christian Vazquez
STARTING PITCHER

Christian Vazquez

#2 | Catcher
@
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Christian Vazquez None-None -- -- -- --
Daniel Lynch IV None-None 1.80 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.80
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
63%
📊
ROYALS
38%
ASTROS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

40.1%

Royals Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

16.3%

KC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6
HOUSTON
5
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
HOUSTON
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Sim Astros (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 KC @ HOU 2 - 6
Sep 16, 2026 KC @ HOU 5 - 2
Sep 15, 2026 KC @ HOU 2 - 4
Jun 14, 2026 HOU @ KC 0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026 HOU @ KC 8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Kansas City KC
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.582
OPS
▲ .718
4
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +77.9% more
Houston: 2.7 vs Kansas City: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +17.3% more
Houston: 7.1 vs Kansas City: 5.9
Total Bases (L5) +14.1% more
Houston: 17.6 vs Kansas City: 15.1
Home Runs (Season) +4150.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 6.0 0
KC Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.4 / 8.6 10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 2.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.9 / 7.1 5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 17.6 11.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
HOU
KC
HOU
ML
55% 89-72
50% 81-82
56% 90-70
47% 77-87
ATS
57% 91-70
56% 91-72
58% 93-67
55% 90-74
TTL
58% 90-64-7
45% 70-84-9
54% 83-70-7
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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