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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

46-24  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Jun 14 • 1:40 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

31-39  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Reynaldo Lopez
STARTING PITCHER

Reynaldo Lopez

#40 | Relief Pitcher
@
Daniel Duarte
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Duarte

#54 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Reynaldo Lopez None-None 3.96 -- 1.0 1
Daniel Duarte None-None 0.00 -- 1.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.96 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
54%
📊
METS
46%
BRAVES --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

59.9%

Mets Cover

40.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ATL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ATLANTA
5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Sim Mets (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 12, 2026 NYM @ ATL 3 - 6
Aug 11, 2026 NYM @ ATL 0 - 4
Aug 10, 2026 NYM @ ATL 8 - 5
Jul 29, 2026 ATL @ NYM 1 - 0
Jul 27, 2026 ATL @ NYM 3 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
New York NYM
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.757 ▲
OPS
.705
1
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +20300.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +16.8% more
New York: 1.5 vs Atlanta: 1.3
Strikeouts (L5) +12.9% more
New York: 9.6 vs Atlanta: 8.5
Batting Avg (Season) +0.6%
New York: 23.9% vs Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.0 1
NYM Score 5.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.2 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.1 / 7.8 13.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.3 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 8.5 4.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 13.0 20.0 / 4.0
Walks 2.2 / 2.7 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
ATL
NYM
ATL
ML
50% 79-80
46% 77-90
48% 76-83
54% 90-78
ATS
58% 93-66
57% 96-71
49% 78-81
52% 87-81
TTL
55% 80-66-13
53% 83-73-11
51% 74-72-13
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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