ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
35-35 | Road
5
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
33-36 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Ginkel
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sam Moll
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Ginkel | None-None | 2.60 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Sam Moll | None-None | 2.79 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.60 Ldr
ERA
2.79
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
50%
REDS
50%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
20%
Under 0
80%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CIN @ ARI
3 - 5
Aug 22, 2026
CIN @ ARI
11 - 5
Aug 21, 2026
CIN @ ARI
0 - 9
Jun 14, 2026
ARI @ CIN
5 - 3
Jun 13, 2026
ARI @ CIN
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.720
▲
OPS
.699
166
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+70.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.3
vs
Arizona: 0.6
Errors (L5)
+58.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.8
vs
Arizona: 0.2
Home Runs (Season)
+28.3% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Total Bases (L5)
+11.6% more
Cincinnati: 11.0
vs
Arizona: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.0
5
CIN Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.9 / 6.5
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.6
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 7.3
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 9.8
15.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.3
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ARI
CIN
ARI
ML
55%
88-71
54%
87-74
49%
79-81
54%
86-74
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
50%
80-80
56%
89-71
TTL
53%
81-73-5
52%
80-73-8
54%
83-72-5
49%
73-77-9
Contextual Game News
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
Rich Rodriguez's Arizona Legacy: All-Star Team Rekindles Tucson …
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…