Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Orioles SD @ BAL

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

36-33  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Jun 14 • 1:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

34-38  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
@
Yennier Cano
STARTING PITCHER

Yennier Cano

#78 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Miller None-None 0.90 -- 1.1 3
Yennier Cano None-None 2.19 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
0.90 Ldr ERA 2.19
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
46%
📊
ORIOLES
54%
PADRES --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 25%
Under 0 75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

89.4%

Orioles Cover

10.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

13.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

18.4%

BAL By 1-2 runs

5.4%

BAL By 3-4 runs

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
9
SAN DIEGO
4
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -5.0
D
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 SD @ BAL 5 - 2
Jun 13, 2026 SD @ BAL 9 - 3
Jun 12, 2026 SD @ BAL 3 - 7
Sep 3, 2025 BAL @ SD 7 - 5
Sep 2, 2025 BAL @ SD 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Baltimore BAL
2
Games Played
▲ 161
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.925 ▲
OPS
.711
4
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +25.7% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Baltimore: 4.5
Home Runs (L5) +25.0% more
San Diego: 2.0 vs Baltimore: 1.5
OPS (Season) +21.4%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Baltimore: 71.1%
Strikeouts (L5) +18.8% more
San Diego: 8.7 vs Baltimore: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 9.0 5
BAL Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.1 3.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 9.1 10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 2.0 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 8.7 7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 15.8 / 17.6 14.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.9 / 4.6 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
99%MONEY1%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
SD
BAL
SD
ML
53% 83-73
51% 85-83
57% 90-69
51% 85-82
ATS
61% 95-60-1
54% 91-77
57% 90-68-1
55% 92-75
TTL
54% 81-70-5
51% 82-80-6
51% 78-75-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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