MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
35-35 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
35-35 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Petersen
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gregory Soto
#31 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Petersen | None-None | 3.07 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
| Gregory Soto | None-None | 3.26 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.07 Ldr
ERA
3.26
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
82%
PIRATES
18%
MARLINS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.3%
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
7
MIAMI
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
82% Win Prob
A
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
PIT @ MIA
13 - 1
Aug 12, 2026
PIT @ MIA
2 - 8
Aug 11, 2026
PIT @ MIA
0 - 2
Jun 14, 2026
MIA @ PIT
4 - 2
Jun 13, 2026
MIA @ PIT
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.727
OPS
▲
.734
168
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+24.3% more
Miami: 10.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.8
Hits (L5)
+9.6% more
Miami: 9.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.2
Home Runs (L5)
+115.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.9
vs
Miami: 0.8
Walks (L5)
+99.3% more
Pittsburgh: 5.9
vs
Miami: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
7.0
2
PIT Score
6.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.1
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 10.3
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 14.1
9.0 / 9.0
Walks
5.9 / 3.0
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MIA
PIT
MIA
ML
52%
82-77
48%
78-84
52%
85-78
55%
88-72
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
91-71
50%
81-82
54%
86-74
TTL
47%
72-81-6
56%
88-69-5
50%
79-78-6
53%
82-73-5
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