DETROIT
TIGERSDET
29-41 | Road
1
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
38-33 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kenley Jansen
#74 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Herrin
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenley Jansen | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Tim Herrin | None-None | 2.92 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.50
ERA
Ldr 2.92
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
59%
GUARDIANS
41%
TIGERS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
DET By 1-2 runs
16.3%
DET By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Cleveland
6
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Win
41% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
DET @ CLE
2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
CLE @ DET
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720
▲
OPS
.696
181
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+107.0% more
Cleveland: 1.2
vs
Detroit: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+50.4% more
Cleveland: 3.6
vs
Detroit: 2.4
Hits (L5)
+13.0% more
Cleveland: 7.9
vs
Detroit: 7.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.8% more
Cleveland: 8.4
vs
Detroit: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
4.0
1
CLE Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.0
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 2.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 7.5
10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 16.3
12.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.4
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
54%
87-74
54%
86-73
49%
80-82
54%
87-73
ATS
58%
93-68
64%
101-58
59%
95-67
57%
91-69
TTL
55%
88-71-2
46%
69-81-9
43%
69-90-2
46%
69-81-10
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