NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
41-27 | Road
3
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
34-36 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | None-None | 3.77 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Louis Varland | None-None | 0.96 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.77
ERA
Ldr 0.96
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
50%
BLUE JAYS
50%
YANKEES
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
NYY By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYY By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TOR @ NYY
3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026
TOR @ NYY
4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TOR @ NYY
1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026
NYY @ TOR
4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026
NYY @ TOR
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Toronto
TOR
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
1.041
▲
OPS
.692
2
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+7500.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Walks (L5)
+26.8% more
Toronto: 4.8
vs
New York: 3.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+9.2% more
Toronto: 9.5
vs
New York: 8.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+55.6% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
4.0
3
TOR Score
5.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 8.5
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.1
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 8.7
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.7 / 14.2
10.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.8 / 3.8
2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYY
TOR
NYY
ML
46%
74-87
47%
76-85
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
90-71
59%
95-66
49%
79-81
53%
86-76
TTL
51%
80-76-5
53%
81-73-7
45%
70-85-5
53%
82-72-7
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