ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
35-34 | Road
1
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
32-36 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Morillo
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Petty
#61 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Morillo | None-None | 2.67 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Chase Petty | None-None | 5.54 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.67 Ldr
ERA
5.54
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
59%
REDS
41%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
30%
Under 0
70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
CIN By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Reds (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CIN @ ARI
3 - 5
Aug 22, 2026
CIN @ ARI
11 - 5
Aug 21, 2026
CIN @ ARI
0 - 9
Jun 14, 2026
ARI @ CIN
5 - 3
Jun 13, 2026
ARI @ CIN
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.720
▲
OPS
.699
166
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+22.9% more
Arizona: 5.0
vs
Cincinnati: 3.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.9% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+2.1%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.7%
Arizona: 24.6%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.0
1
CIN Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 6.2
3.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 5.9
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 8.7
7.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.8 / 5.0
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ARI
CIN
ARI
ML
55%
88-71
54%
87-74
49%
79-81
54%
86-74
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
50%
80-80
56%
89-71
TTL
53%
81-73-5
52%
80-73-8
54%
83-72-5
49%
73-77-9
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