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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

36-34  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Jun 13 • 10:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

28-42  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
@
Dylan Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Smith

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Caleb Thielbar None-None 3.50 -- 1.2 1
Dylan Smith None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.50 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
46%
📊
GIANTS
54%
CUBS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

40.1%

Giants Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

SF By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
CHICAGO
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Sim Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 CHC @ SF 1 - 5
Jun 13, 2026 CHC @ SF 6 - 1
Jun 12, 2026 CHC @ SF 5 - 1
Jun 7, 2026 SF @ CHC 2 - 1
Jun 6, 2026 SF @ CHC 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
San Francisco SF
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.13
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .306
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.374
OPS
▲ .706
0
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +34.0% more
Chicago: 0.7 vs San Francisco: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +9.9% more
Chicago: 8.6 vs San Francisco: 7.7
Home Runs (Season) +17800.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +363.0% more
San Francisco: 4.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 4.0 6
SF Score 3.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.9 / 7.3 7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.5 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 8.6 12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.0 / 14.1 10.0 / 24.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.4 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
CHC
SF
CHC
ML
49% 79-81
58% 93-68
53% 85-75
51% 82-79
ATS
62% 100-60
61% 97-63-1
52% 83-77
47% 75-85-1
TTL
55% 82-68-10
52% 81-74-6
46% 68-81-11
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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