Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Orioles SD @ BAL

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

35-33  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Jun 13 • 4:05 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

34-37  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Adrian Morejon
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Morejon

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Albert Suarez
STARTING PITCHER

Albert Suarez

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Adrian Morejon None-None 4.15 -- 0.1 --
Albert Suarez None-None 4.40 -- 4.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.15 Ldr ERA 4.40
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
36%
📊
ORIOLES
64%
PADRES --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 23%
Under 0 77%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

40.1%

Orioles Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

BAL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
SAN DIEGO
3
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Win
36% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Padres (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Sim u10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 SD @ BAL 5 - 2
Jun 13, 2026 SD @ BAL 9 - 3
Jun 12, 2026 SD @ BAL 3 - 7
Sep 3, 2025 BAL @ SD 7 - 5
Sep 2, 2025 BAL @ SD 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Baltimore BAL
2
Games Played
▲ 161
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.925 ▲
OPS
.711
4
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +47.0% more
San Diego: 5.4 vs Baltimore: 2.9
Strikeouts (L5) +31.0% more
San Diego: 9.6 vs Baltimore: 6.6
Runs per Game (Season) +25.7% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Baltimore: 4.5
OPS (Season) +21.4%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Baltimore: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.0 9
BAL Score 3.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 8.6 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.5 1.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 9.6 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.8 / 13.4 18.0 / 26.0
Walks 2.9 / 5.4 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
SD
BAL
SD
ML
53% 83-73
51% 85-83
57% 90-69
51% 85-82
ATS
61% 95-60-1
54% 91-77
57% 90-68-1
55% 92-75
TTL
54% 81-70-5
51% 82-80-6
51% 78-75-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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