Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Twins STL @ MIN

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

37-30  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Jun 13 • 2:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

32-39  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Travis Adams
STARTING PITCHER

Travis Adams

#45 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley O'Brien None-None 3.86 -- 1.0 1
Travis Adams None-None 6.89 -- 2.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.86 Ldr ERA 6.89
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.1
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
55%
📊
TWINS
45%
CARDINALS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

Twins Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

STL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
ST. LOUIS
4
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Twins (+3.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Cardinals (-3.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 STL @ MIN 4 - 5
Jun 13, 2026 STL @ MIN 9 - 6
Jun 12, 2026 STL @ MIN 8 - 9
Mar 30, 2025 MIN @ STL 2 - 9
Mar 29, 2025 MIN @ STL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.691
OPS
▲ .720
167
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +110.8% more
Minnesota: 3.9 vs St. Louis: 1.9
Errors (L5) +40.0% more
Minnesota: 0.5 vs St. Louis: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +28.4% more
Minnesota: 2.3 vs St. Louis: 1.8
Strikeouts (L5) +26.8% more
Minnesota: 9.6 vs St. Louis: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.0 9
MIN Score 4.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 9.9 7.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 1.8 3.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 7.5 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 17.7 / 17.0 17.0 / 29.0
Walks 3.9 / 1.9 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
STL
MIN
STL
ML
52% 84-78
53% 85-74
50% 80-81
52% 84-77
ATS
59% 95-67
56% 89-70
59% 95-66
53% 85-76
TTL
51% 78-75-9
46% 68-81-10
53% 80-72-9
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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