TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
34-35 | Road
3
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
28-39 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Peyton Gray
#75 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Gray | None-None | 4.03 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 0.44 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.03
ERA
Ldr 0.44
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
55%
RED SOX
45%
RANGERS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
TEX By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TEX By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Boston
5
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
BOS @ TEX
4 - 3
Sep 16, 2026
BOS @ TEX
3 - 7
Sep 15, 2026
BOS @ TEX
2 - 4
Jun 14, 2026
TEX @ BOS
6 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
TEX @ BOS
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.713
▲
OPS
.409
183
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+121.0% more
Boston: 1.9
vs
Texas: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+32.7% more
Boston: 16.8
vs
Texas: 12.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.5% more
Boston: 7.2
vs
Texas: 6.4
Home Runs (Season)
+98.9% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.0
3
BOS Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 8.8
11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 6.4
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
16.8 / 12.7
15.0 / 13.0
Walks
1.7 / 3.1
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TEX
BOS
TEX
ML
50%
80-80
53%
86-76
47%
76-87
57%
91-70
ATS
58%
93-67
57%
92-70
48%
79-84
61%
98-63
TTL
46%
72-83-5
53%
78-70-14
47%
74-83-6
55%
81-66-14
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