Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Giants CHC @ SF

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

35-34  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Jun 12 • 10:15 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

28-41  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Trent Thornton
STARTING PITCHER

Trent Thornton

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sam Hentges
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Hentges

#31 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trent Thornton None-None 2.00 -- 2.0 2
Sam Hentges None-None 1.74 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.00 ERA Ldr 1.74
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
38%
📊
GIANTS
62%
CUBS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Francisco)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

40.1%

Giants Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

CHC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CHC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
CHICAGO
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 CHC @ SF 1 - 5
Jun 13, 2026 CHC @ SF 6 - 1
Jun 12, 2026 CHC @ SF 5 - 1
Jun 7, 2026 SF @ CHC 2 - 1
Jun 6, 2026 SF @ CHC 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
San Francisco SF
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.13
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .306
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.374
OPS
▲ .706
0
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +17800.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +363.0% more
San Francisco: 4.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5) +49.0% more
San Francisco: 0.5 vs Chicago: 0.0
Hits (L5) +41.7% more
San Francisco: 11.3 vs Chicago: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 3.0 5
SF Score 4.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.0 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 11.3 / 8.0 4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 1.7 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 9.3 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 20.6 / 14.6 7.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.1 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
CHC
SF
CHC
ML
49% 79-81
58% 93-68
53% 85-75
51% 82-79
ATS
62% 100-60
61% 97-63-1
52% 83-77
47% 75-85-1
TTL
55% 82-68-10
52% 81-74-6
46% 68-81-11
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 48 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 55 minutes ago
White Sox Eye ALDS Sweep Over Guardians in Game 3 Showdown
yahoo 1 day, 12 hours ago
Sean Burke's Relief Masterclass Puts White Sox on Brink of ALCS
yahoo 1 day, 18 hours ago
Braden Montgomery's Improbable Double Powers White Sox Past Guar…
yahoo 2 days, 18 hours ago