DETROIT
TIGERSDET
29-40 | Road
2
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
37-33 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ty Madden
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Madden | None-None | 3.15 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.59 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.15
ERA
Ldr 2.59
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
70%
GUARDIANS
30%
TIGERS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
13.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
18.4%
CLE By 1-2 runs
5.4%
CLE By 3-4 runs
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
7
DETROIT
Cleveland
2
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -5.0
A
Sim
Tigers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
DET @ CLE
2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
CLE @ DET
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720
▲
OPS
.696
181
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+75.5% more
Detroit: 3.0
vs
Cleveland: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+46.7% more
Detroit: 20.4
vs
Cleveland: 10.9
Hits (L5)
+22.6% more
Detroit: 9.5
vs
Cleveland: 7.4
Home Runs (Season)
+10.5% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
7.0
2
CLE Score
2.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 9.5
9.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 3.0
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 7.2
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 20.4
14.0 / 8.0
Walks
4.5 / 2.6
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
54%
87-74
54%
86-73
49%
80-82
54%
87-73
ATS
58%
93-68
64%
101-58
59%
95-67
57%
91-69
TTL
55%
88-71-2
46%
69-81-9
43%
69-90-2
46%
69-81-10
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