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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

34-34  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Jun 12 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

27-39  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Cal Quantrill
STARTING PITCHER

Cal Quantrill

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tyron Guerrero
STARTING PITCHER

Tyron Guerrero

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cal Quantrill None-None 2.36 -- 2.0 1
Tyron Guerrero None-None 4.32 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.36 Ldr ERA 4.32
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
65%
📊
RED SOX
35%
RANGERS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Boston)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

30.9%

Red Sox Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

TEX By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

7.8%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4
TEXAS
6
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
TEXAS
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
35% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 BOS @ TEX 4 - 3
Sep 16, 2026 BOS @ TEX 3 - 7
Sep 15, 2026 BOS @ TEX 2 - 4
Jun 14, 2026 TEX @ BOS 6 - 4
Jun 13, 2026 TEX @ BOS 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.15 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.242 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.713 ▲
OPS
.409
183 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +29.9% more
Boston: 1.4 vs Texas: 1.1
Errors (L5) +17.0% more
Boston: 0.4 vs Texas: 0.2
Home Runs (Season) +98.9% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +75.9% more
Texas: 4.2 vs Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 4.0 1
BOS Score 6.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 6.3 / 10.2 12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.1 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 7.6 8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 11.7 / 15.5 27.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.1 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TEX
BOS
TEX
ML
50% 80-80
53% 86-76
47% 76-87
57% 91-70
ATS
58% 93-67
57% 92-70
48% 79-84
61% 98-63
TTL
46% 72-83-5
53% 78-70-14
47% 74-83-6
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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