Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Blue Jays NYY @ TOR

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

41-26  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Jun 12 • 7:37 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

33-36  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Fernando Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Fernando Cruz

#63 | RP
@
Louis Varland
STARTING PITCHER

Louis Varland

#77 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Fernando Cruz None-None 2.08 -- 1.0 2
Louis Varland None-None 0.49 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.08 ERA Ldr 0.49
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
60%
📊
BLUE JAYS
40%
YANKEES --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 68%
Under 0 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

40.1%

Blue Jays Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.3%

TOR By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TOR By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
NEW YORK
3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Yankees (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 TOR @ NYY 3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026 TOR @ NYY 4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 TOR @ NYY 1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026 NYY @ TOR 4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026 NYY @ TOR 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Toronto TOR
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
1.041 ▲
OPS
.692
2
Home Runs
▲ 152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +66.0% more
New York: 0.9 vs Toronto: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season) +55.6% more
New York: 9.0 vs Toronto: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +36.1% more
New York: 1.2 vs Toronto: 0.8
OPS (Season) +34.9%
New York: 1.0% vs Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 4.0 5
TOR Score 3.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.7 / 9.2 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.2 / 9.0 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 15.3 19.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.7 7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYY
TOR
NYY
ML
46% 74-87
47% 76-85
50% 80-80
52% 85-77
ATS
56% 90-71
59% 95-66
49% 79-81
53% 86-76
TTL
51% 80-76-5
53% 81-73-7
45% 70-85-5
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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