SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
35-32 | Road
3
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
33-37 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Kittredge
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 2.18 | -- | 1.2 | 3 |
| Andrew Kittredge | None-None | 6.32 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.18 Ldr
ERA
6.32
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
40%
ORIOLES
60%
PADRES
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
SD By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Baltimore
7
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 14, 2026
SD @ BAL
5 - 2
Jun 13, 2026
SD @ BAL
9 - 3
Jun 12, 2026
SD @ BAL
3 - 7
Sep 3, 2025
BAL @ SD
7 - 5
Sep 2, 2025
BAL @ SD
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Baltimore
BAL
2
Games Played
▲
161
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.925
▲
OPS
.711
4
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4875.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+87.0% more
Baltimore: 1.6
vs
San Diego: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+30.0% more
Baltimore: 0.6
vs
San Diego: 0.3
Walks (L5)
+39.0% more
San Diego: 4.6
vs
Baltimore: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
6.0
3
BAL Score
7.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 9.5
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.8
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 8.9
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 15.0
14.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.8 / 4.6
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
SD
BAL
SD
ML
53%
83-73
51%
85-83
57%
90-69
51%
85-82
ATS
61%
95-60-1
54%
91-77
57%
90-68-1
55%
92-75
TTL
54%
81-70-5
51%
82-80-6
51%
78-75-6
54%
86-74-6
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