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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

40-25  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Jun 12 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

27-42  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Mason Englert
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Englert

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mitch Farris
STARTING PITCHER

Mitch Farris

#70 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Englert None-None 3.96 -- 4.0 3
Mitch Farris None-None 2.96 -- 2.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.96 ERA Ldr 2.96
-- WHIP --
4.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 2.2
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
59%
📊
ANGELS
41%
RAYS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

40.1%

Angels Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

TB By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

10.6%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
TAMPA BAY
5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Win
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (+3.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Rays (-3.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 TB @ LAA 8 - 3
Jun 13, 2026 TB @ LAA 0 - 8
Jun 12, 2026 TB @ LAA 3 - 4
May 31, 2026 LAA @ TB 2 - 5
May 30, 2026 LAA @ TB 14 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.728 ▲
OPS
.679
169 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +70.0% more
Los Angeles: 3.7 vs Tampa Bay: 2.2
Home Runs (L5) +55.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.2 vs Tampa Bay: 0.6
Errors (L5) +41.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.6 vs Tampa Bay: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5) +21.0% more
Los Angeles: 11.6 vs Tampa Bay: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 4.0 3
LAA Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 10.0 12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.6 / 9.6 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 14.1 17.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.2 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
100%MONEY0%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
TB
LAA
TB
ML
59% 96-66
58% 95-68
55% 89-73
58% 95-68
ATS
60% 97-65
60% 97-66
51% 82-80
55% 90-73
TTL
53% 83-74-5
47% 73-81-9
52% 82-75-5
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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