Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Nationals SEA @ WSH

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

36-34  |  Road

10
FINAL
Fri, Jun 12 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

35-34  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Michael Rucker
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Rucker

#38 | Relief Pitcher
@
Riley Cornelio
STARTING PITCHER

Riley Cornelio

#74 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Rucker None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Riley Cornelio None-None 6.48 -- 4.1 2
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 6.48
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
50%
📊
NATIONALS
50%
MARINERS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

40.1%

Nationals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

SEA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SEA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
SEATTLE
5
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (+3.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Mariners (-3.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 SEA @ WSH 1 - 10
Jun 13, 2026 SEA @ WSH 3 - 8
Jun 12, 2026 SEA @ WSH 10 - 2
May 29, 2025 WSH @ SEA 9 - 3
May 28, 2025 WSH @ SEA 9 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.693
OPS
▲ .744
182
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +23.7% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Seattle: 4.1
Errors (L5) +19.0% more
Washington: 0.7 vs Seattle: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +16.9% more
Washington: 16.0 vs Seattle: 13.7
Hits (L5) +15.9% more
Washington: 9.7 vs Seattle: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 4.0 10
WSH Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.7 / 8.4 4.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.6 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 8.2 4.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.0 / 13.7 10.0 / 22.0
Walks 4.1 / 3.8 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
SEA
WSH
SEA
ML
57% 92-69
50% 81-81
54% 87-74
52% 85-77
ATS
58% 93-68
60% 98-64
57% 91-70
59% 95-67
TTL
50% 77-78-6
56% 85-67-10
42% 65-90-6
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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