MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
31-38 | Road
0
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
28-40 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zebby Matthews
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Holton
#87 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zebby Matthews | None-None | 5.20 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
| Tyler Holton | None-None | 4.15 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.20
ERA
Ldr 4.15
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
42%
TIGERS
58%
TWINS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
14.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-2 runs
10.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
16.3%
DET By 1-2 runs
3.5%
DET By 3-4 runs
1.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
10
MINNESOTA
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Twins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -6.0
C
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 14.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
MIN @ DET
2 - 7
Sep 8, 2026
MIN @ DET
3 - 2
Sep 7, 2026
MIN @ DET
4 - 5
Sep 2, 2026
DET @ MIN
11 - 6
Sep 1, 2026
DET @ MIN
2 - 15
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
.720
187
▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+31.9% more
Minnesota: 10.7
vs
Detroit: 7.3
Walks (L5)
+31.8% more
Minnesota: 5.0
vs
Detroit: 3.4
Home Runs (L5)
+29.7% more
Minnesota: 2.1
vs
Detroit: 1.5
Hits (L5)
+18.4% more
Minnesota: 9.5
vs
Detroit: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
10.0
0
DET Score
4.0
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 9.5
13.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 2.1
6.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 10.7
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 17.2
33.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.4 / 5.0
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIN
DET
MIN
ML
54%
86-73
52%
84-78
54%
87-73
50%
80-81
ATS
64%
101-58
59%
95-67
57%
91-69
59%
95-66
TTL
46%
69-81-9
51%
78-75-9
46%
69-81-10
53%
80-72-9
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