ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
37-28 | Road
4
NEW YORK
METSNYM
29-38 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gordon Graceffo
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Graceffo | None-None | 1.64 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Devin Williams | None-None | 5.32 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.64 Ldr
ERA
5.32
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
67%
METS
33%
CARDINALS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 11, 2026
STL @ NYM
4 - 5
Jun 10, 2026
STL @ NYM
9 - 2
Jun 9, 2026
STL @ NYM
7 - 0
Apr 1, 2026
NYM @ STL
1 - 2
Mar 31, 2026
NYM @ STL
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.691
OPS
▲
.705
167
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+35.6% more
St. Louis: 9.9
vs
New York: 6.4
Total Bases (L5)
+31.0% more
St. Louis: 16.7
vs
New York: 11.5
Home Runs (L5)
+30.0% more
St. Louis: 1.7
vs
New York: 1.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.4% more
St. Louis: 7.9
vs
New York: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
5.0
4
NYM Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.4 / 9.9
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.7
3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 7.9
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 16.7
21.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.3 / 1.9
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
STL
NYM
STL
ML
50%
79-80
53%
85-74
48%
76-83
52%
84-77
ATS
58%
93-66
56%
89-70
49%
78-81
53%
85-76
TTL
55%
80-66-13
46%
68-81-10
51%
74-72-13
50%
76-75-10
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