CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
32-34 | Road
4
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
34-32 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Petty
#61 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Petty | None-None | 6.35 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 2.30 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.35
ERA
Ldr 2.30
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
54%
PADRES
46%
REDS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 7
Sep 1, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 4
Aug 31, 2026
SD @ CIN
5 - 0
Jun 10, 2026
CIN @ SD
4 - 5
Jun 9, 2026
CIN @ SD
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.699
OPS
▲
.925
213
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+46.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+22.6%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.4% more
San Diego: 11.3
vs
Cincinnati: 9.3
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.9%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 39.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.0
4
SD Score
6.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 8.6
11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.1
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
11.3 / 9.3
4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 13.1
19.0 / 20.0
Walks
4.9 / 4.4
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
CIN
SD
CIN
ML
51%
85-83
55%
88-71
51%
85-82
49%
79-81
ATS
54%
91-77
54%
86-73
55%
92-75
50%
80-80
TTL
51%
82-80-6
53%
81-73-5
54%
86-74-6
54%
83-72-5
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