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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

35-33  |  Road

10
FINAL
Wed, Jun 10 • 3:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

27-41  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Orlando Ribalta
STARTING PITCHER

Orlando Ribalta

#64 | Relief Pitcher
@
Drew Gilbert
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Gilbert

#0 | Center Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orlando Ribalta None-None 1.86 -- 1.0 1
Drew Gilbert None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.86 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
63%
📊
GIANTS
38%
NATIONALS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Francisco)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

22.7%

Giants Cover

77.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

WSH By 1-2 runs

10.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

5.4%

SF By 1-2 runs

18.4%

SF By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WASHINGTON
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
6
WASHINGTON
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Win
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 10, 2026 WSH @ SF 10 - 11
Jun 9, 2026 WSH @ SF 6 - 3
Jun 8, 2026 WSH @ SF 4 - 3
Apr 19, 2026 SF @ WSH 0 - 3
Apr 18, 2026 SF @ WSH 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744 ▲
OPS
.706
210 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +45.4% more
San Francisco: 9.1 vs Washington: 6.3
Hits (L5) +32.2% more
San Francisco: 10.0 vs Washington: 7.5
Total Bases (L5) +21.2% more
San Francisco: 16.3 vs Washington: 13.5
Errors (L5) +26.0% more
Washington: 1.0 vs San Francisco: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.0 10
SF Score 6.0 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.0 / 7.5 14.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.1 4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 6.3 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.3 / 13.5 29.0 / 21.0
Walks 4.0 / 4.1 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
WSH
SF
WSH
ML
49% 79-81
57% 92-69
53% 85-75
54% 87-74
ATS
62% 100-60
58% 93-68
52% 83-77
57% 91-70
TTL
55% 82-68-10
50% 77-78-6
46% 68-81-11
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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