PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
36-31 | Road
7
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
33-35 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Rogers
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.99 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Tyler Rogers | None-None | 2.03 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.99 Ldr
ERA
2.03
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
63%
BLUE JAYS
38%
PHILLIES
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
PHI By 1-2 runs
10.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
5.4%
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.4%
TOR By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
1
PHILADELPHIA
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Toronto
6
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
TOR @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
TOR @ PHI
7 - 5
Aug 7, 2026
TOR @ PHI
5 - 4
Jun 10, 2026
PHI @ TOR
7 - 4
Jun 9, 2026
PHI @ TOR
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.724
▲
OPS
.692
3
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4966.7% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+50.0% more
Toronto: 3.0
vs
Philadelphia: 2.0
Hits (L5)
+26.1% more
Toronto: 9.0
vs
Philadelphia: 7.1
Total Bases (L5)
+19.0% more
Toronto: 14.7
vs
Philadelphia: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
1.0
7
TOR Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.0 / 7.1
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.0
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
10.8 / 9.4
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.7 / 12.4
8.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.0
5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PHI
TOR
PHI
ML
46%
74-87
59%
97-67
50%
80-80
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
90-71
65%
107-57
49%
79-81
51%
83-81
TTL
51%
80-76-5
57%
88-67-9
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-76-9
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