SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
36-32 | Road
2
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
31-37 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
George Kirby
#68 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | None-None | 4.07 | -- | 6.0 | 10 |
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 2.38 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.07
ERA
Ldr 2.38
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
10 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
67%
ORIOLES
33%
MARINERS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
SEA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SEA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
33% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o9.0
Push
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 18, 2026
BAL @ SEA
0 - 3
Jun 17, 2026
BAL @ SEA
5 - 3
Jun 16, 2026
BAL @ SEA
1 - 3
Jun 11, 2026
SEA @ BAL
5 - 7
Jun 10, 2026
SEA @ BAL
2 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.314
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.693
OPS
▲
.711
182
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+9.3% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Seattle: 182.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.8% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Seattle: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+1.8%
Baltimore: 71.1%
vs
Seattle: 69.3%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.7%
Baltimore: 39.6%
vs
Seattle: 37.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
3.0
2
BAL Score
4.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 10.1
11.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.3
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.3 / 8.1
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 15.3
21.0 / 4.0
Walks
1.8 / 3.8
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
SEA
BAL
SEA
ML
53%
83-73
50%
81-81
57%
90-69
52%
85-77
ATS
61%
95-60-1
60%
98-64
57%
90-68-1
59%
95-67
TTL
54%
81-70-5
56%
85-67-10
51%
78-75-6
53%
81-71-10
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …