ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
34-32 | Road
0
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
32-35 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Morillo
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Gibson
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Morillo | None-None | 2.42 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Cade Gibson | None-None | 6.52 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.42 Ldr
ERA
6.52
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
32%
MARLINS
68%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
ARI By 1-2 runs
10.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
5.4%
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.4%
MIA By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Miami
7
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Miami
6
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Win
68% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
MIA @ ARI
4 - 3
Sep 15, 2026
MIA @ ARI
4 - 2
Sep 14, 2026
MIA @ ARI
7 - 8
Jun 11, 2026
ARI @ MIA
0 - 2
Jun 10, 2026
ARI @ MIA
0 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
▲
.727
166
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+64.4% more
Miami: 9.9
vs
Arizona: 6.0
Errors (L5)
+37.0% more
Miami: 0.4
vs
Arizona: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+34.8% more
Miami: 4.6
vs
Arizona: 3.4
Hits (L5)
+23.3% more
Miami: 9.5
vs
Arizona: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.0
0
MIA Score
7.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 7.7
10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.4
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 6.0
10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 12.9
19.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.6 / 3.4
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ARI
MIA
ARI
ML
48%
78-84
54%
87-74
55%
88-72
54%
86-74
ATS
56%
91-71
57%
91-70
54%
86-74
56%
89-71
TTL
56%
88-69-5
52%
80-73-8
53%
82-73-5
49%
73-77-9
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