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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

27-38  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Jun 10 • 1:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

39-25  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Garrett Cleavinger
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Cleavinger

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Greg Weissert None-None 3.86 -- 0.1 1
Garrett Cleavinger None-None 4.70 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.86 Ldr ERA 4.70
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
42%
📊
RAYS
58%
RED SOX --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

30.9%

Rays Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

BOS By 1-2 runs

13.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

7.8%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4
BOSTON
6
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rays (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 BOS @ TB 4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026 TB @ BOS 1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026 TB @ BOS 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Tampa Bay TB
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.409
OPS
▲ .728
2
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8350.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +354.0% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Hits (L5) +33.5% more
Tampa Bay: 8.5 vs Boston: 6.4
OPS (Season) +31.9%
Tampa Bay: 72.8% vs Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.0 5
TB Score 6.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 6.4 13.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.6 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 7.7 15.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 10.1 19.0 / 15.0
Walks 1.8 / 3.2 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BOS
TB
BOS
ML
58% 95-68
50% 80-80
58% 95-68
47% 76-87
ATS
60% 97-66
58% 93-67
55% 90-73
48% 79-84
TTL
47% 73-81-9
46% 72-83-5
51% 78-75-10
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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