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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

31-38  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Jun 10 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

26-42  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Abreu
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Abreu

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Abreu None-None 6.85 -- -- --
Sam Bachman None-None 1.99 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.85 ERA Ldr 1.99
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
54%
📊
ANGELS
46%
ASTROS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

40.1%

Angels Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

HOU By 1-2 runs

16.3%

HOU By 3-4 runs

10.6%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
HOUSTON
6
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
HOUSTON
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 LAA @ HOU 18 - 3
Aug 19, 2026 LAA @ HOU 2 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 LAA @ HOU 3 - 1
Jul 29, 2026 HOU @ LAA 7 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 HOU @ LAA 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Los Angeles LAA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .369
.582
OPS
▲ .679
4
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +3750.0% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +34.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.0 vs Houston: 3.0
Hits (L5) +33.0% more
Los Angeles: 9.3 vs Houston: 7.0
Total Bases (L5) +24.2% more
Los Angeles: 13.4 vs Houston: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 5.0 2
LAA Score 6.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 7.0 7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.5 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.9 / 9.3 13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 10.8 13.0 / 11.0
Walks 5.1 / 4.7 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
HOU
LAA
HOU
ML
59% 96-66
50% 81-82
55% 89-73
47% 77-87
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 91-72
51% 82-80
55% 90-74
TTL
53% 83-74-5
45% 70-84-9
52% 82-75-5
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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