Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Guardians NYY @ CLE

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

40-26  |  Road

8
FINAL
Wed, Jun 10 • 1:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

37-32  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Yarbrough
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Yarbrough

#33 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matt Festa
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Festa

#52 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Yarbrough None-None 3.47 -- 2.0 2
Matt Festa None-None 4.30 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.47 Ldr ERA 4.30
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
63%
📊
GUARDIANS
37%
YANKEES --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

40.1%

Guardians Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

NYY By 1-2 runs

16.3%

NYY By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
NEW YORK
4
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Loss
37% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Guardians (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 10, 2026 NYY @ CLE 8 - 4
Jun 9, 2026 NYY @ CLE 3 - 2
Jun 8, 2026 NYY @ CLE 7 - 5
Jun 4, 2026 CLE @ NYY 1 - 2
Jun 3, 2026 CLE @ NYY 5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Cleveland CLE
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
1.041 ▲
OPS
.696
2
Home Runs
▲ 162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8000.0% more
Cleveland: 162.0 vs New York: 2.0
Home Runs (L5) +66.3% more
New York: 1.8 vs Cleveland: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season) +53.4% more
New York: 9.0 vs Cleveland: 4.2
OPS (Season) +34.5%
New York: 1.0% vs Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 3.0 8
CLE Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.1 / 8.3 6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 9.0 8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 14.4 11.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.5 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
NYY
CLE
NYY
ML
54% 87-74
47% 76-85
49% 80-82
52% 85-77
ATS
58% 93-68
59% 95-66
59% 95-67
53% 86-76
TTL
55% 88-71-2
53% 81-73-7
43% 69-90-2
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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