ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
36-28 | Road
9
NEW YORK
METSNYM
29-37 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Svanson
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jonathan Pintaro
#91 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Svanson | None-None | 7.85 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Pintaro | None-None | 1.35 | -- | 3.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.85
ERA
Ldr 1.35
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
59%
METS
41%
CARDINALS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
STL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
New York
6
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
New York
7
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 11, 2026
STL @ NYM
4 - 5
Jun 10, 2026
STL @ NYM
9 - 2
Jun 9, 2026
STL @ NYM
7 - 0
Apr 1, 2026
NYM @ STL
1 - 2
Mar 31, 2026
NYM @ STL
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.691
OPS
▲
.705
167
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+52.7% more
New York: 2.9
vs
St. Louis: 1.9
Home Runs (Season)
+22.2% more
New York: 204.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Home Runs (L5)
+20.8% more
New York: 1.3
vs
St. Louis: 1.1
Errors (L5)
+15.0% more
New York: 0.5
vs
St. Louis: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
5.0
9
NYM Score
6.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 9.3
3.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.1
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 8.4
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 15.0
7.0 / 20.0
Walks
2.9 / 1.9
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
STL
NYM
STL
ML
50%
79-80
53%
85-74
48%
76-83
52%
84-77
ATS
58%
93-66
56%
89-70
49%
78-81
53%
85-76
TTL
55%
80-66-13
46%
68-81-10
51%
74-72-13
50%
76-75-10
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