Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Pirates LAD @ PIT

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

43-24  |  Road

8
FINAL
Wed, Jun 10 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

34-33  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Jack Dreyer
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Dreyer

#86 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gregory Soto
STARTING PITCHER

Gregory Soto

#31 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jack Dreyer None-None 3.04 -- 0.2 1
Gregory Soto None-None 3.38 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.04 Ldr ERA 3.38
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
59%
📊
PIRATES
41%
DODGERS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

84.1%

Pirates Cover

15.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

19.6%

PIT By 1-2 runs

7.8%

PIT By 3-4 runs

3.5%

AI Model Projected Score
8
LOS ANGELES
4
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Pirates (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
C
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 PIT @ LAD 0 - 4
Aug 22, 2026 PIT @ LAD 3 - 4
Aug 21, 2026 PIT @ LAD 4 - 5
Jun 11, 2026 LAD @ PIT 8 - 6
Jun 10, 2026 LAD @ PIT 8 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.330
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.762 ▲
OPS
.734
204 ▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +41.5% more
Los Angeles: 11.0 vs Pittsburgh: 6.4
Total Bases (L5) +32.2% more
Los Angeles: 17.2 vs Pittsburgh: 11.6
Strikeouts (L5) +14.7% more
Los Angeles: 10.8 vs Pittsburgh: 9.2
Home Runs (Season) +8.8% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Pittsburgh: 186.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 8.0 8
PIT Score 4.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.1 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.4 / 11.0 11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.3 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 10.8 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 17.2 23.0 / 17.0
Walks 5.2 / 2.6 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
LAD
PIT
LAD
ML
52% 82-77
56% 92-73
52% 85-78
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 86-73
59% 98-67
50% 81-82
43% 72-94
TTL
47% 72-81-6
48% 77-82-6
50% 79-78-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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