PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
36-30 | Road
2
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
32-35 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 2.08 | -- | -- | -- |
| Louis Varland | None-None | 0.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.08
ERA
Ldr 0.50
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
68%
BLUE JAYS
32%
PHILLIES
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
81%
Under 0
19%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
TOR By 1-2 runs
13.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Toronto
6
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
68% Win Prob
C
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Blue Jays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
TOR @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
TOR @ PHI
7 - 5
Aug 7, 2026
TOR @ PHI
5 - 4
Jun 10, 2026
PHI @ TOR
7 - 4
Jun 9, 2026
PHI @ TOR
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.724
▲
OPS
.692
3
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+21.6% more
Philadelphia: 1.5
vs
Toronto: 1.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.9% more
Philadelphia: 10.2
vs
Toronto: 8.6
Slugging Pct (Season)
+5.7%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Toronto: 38.1%
OPS (Season)
+3.2%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.0
2
TOR Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 8.2
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 10.2
15.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 14.6
14.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.0
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PHI
TOR
PHI
ML
46%
74-87
59%
97-67
50%
80-80
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
90-71
65%
107-57
49%
79-81
51%
83-81
TTL
51%
80-76-5
57%
88-67-9
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-76-9
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