ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
34-31 | Road
6
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
31-35 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Ginkel
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Pete Fairbanks
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Ginkel | None-None | 2.81 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Pete Fairbanks | None-None | 7.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.81 Ldr
ERA
7.00
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
40%
MARLINS
60%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Miami
4
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
MIA @ ARI
4 - 3
Sep 15, 2026
MIA @ ARI
4 - 2
Sep 14, 2026
MIA @ ARI
7 - 8
Jun 11, 2026
ARI @ MIA
0 - 2
Jun 10, 2026
ARI @ MIA
0 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
▲
.727
166
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+56.0% more
Miami: 0.7
vs
Arizona: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+32.8% more
Miami: 9.3
vs
Arizona: 7.0
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.8%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
Arizona: 31.8%
OPS (Season)
+0.7%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
3.0
6
MIA Score
4.0
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.7 / 6.5
15.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.2
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 7.0
11.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 10.8
21.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.9 / 3.6
8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ARI
MIA
ARI
ML
48%
78-84
54%
87-74
55%
88-72
54%
86-74
ATS
56%
91-71
57%
91-70
54%
86-74
56%
89-71
TTL
56%
88-69-5
52%
80-73-8
53%
82-73-5
49%
73-77-9
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