TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
32-33 | Road
3
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
27-39 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Robby Ahlstrom
#54 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Alex Lange
#56 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robby Ahlstrom | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Alex Lange | None-None | 3.90 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
3.90
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
69%
ROYALS
31%
RANGERS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
18.4%
TEX By 3-4 runs
19.6%
KC By 1-2 runs
10.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
5
TEXAS
Kansas City
2
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Royals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 11, 2026
TEX @ KC
4 - 2
Jun 10, 2026
TEX @ KC
6 - 4
Jun 9, 2026
TEX @ KC
3 - 5
May 31, 2026
KC @ TEX
3 - 6
May 30, 2026
KC @ TEX
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.713
OPS
▲
.718
183
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+47.1% more
Texas: 1.7
vs
Kansas City: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+20.6% more
Texas: 16.3
vs
Kansas City: 12.9
Walks (L5)
+19.5% more
Texas: 2.6
vs
Kansas City: 2.1
Home Runs (Season)
+7.1% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
5.0
3
KC Score
2.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 9.1
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.7
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 8.0
8.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 16.3
19.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.1 / 2.6
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TEX
KC
TEX
ML
55%
89-72
53%
86-76
56%
90-70
57%
91-70
ATS
57%
91-70
57%
92-70
58%
93-67
61%
98-63
TTL
58%
90-64-7
53%
78-70-14
54%
83-70-7
55%
81-66-14
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