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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

30-37  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Jun 9 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

27-39  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Taylor Rogers
STARTING PITCHER

Taylor Rogers

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kyle Finnegan
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Finnegan

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Taylor Rogers None-None 4.97 -- 0.2 1
Kyle Finnegan None-None 2.01 -- 1.2 3
None-None W-L None-None
4.97 ERA Ldr 2.01
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
40%
📊
TIGERS
60%
TWINS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Detroit)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

15.9%

Tigers Cover

84.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

MIN By 1-2 runs

7.8%

MIN By 3-4 runs

3.5%

DET By 1-2 runs

16.3%

DET By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
MINNESOTA
8
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Tigers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 MIN @ DET 2 - 7
Sep 8, 2026 MIN @ DET 3 - 2
Sep 7, 2026 MIN @ DET 4 - 5
Sep 2, 2026 DET @ MIN 11 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 DET @ MIN 2 - 15
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
.720
187 ▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +8.3% more
Detroit: 1.3 vs Minnesota: 1.2
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.3%
Detroit: 32.0% vs Minnesota: 31.7%
Errors (L5) +40.0% more
Minnesota: 0.8 vs Detroit: 0.4
Walks (L5) +35.1% more
Minnesota: 3.8 vs Detroit: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 4.0 4
DET Score 8.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 7.4 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.2 4.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 9.7 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 12.9 25.0 / 23.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.8 3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIN
DET
MIN
ML
54% 86-73
52% 84-78
54% 87-73
50% 80-81
ATS
64% 101-58
59% 95-67
57% 91-69
59% 95-66
TTL
46% 69-81-9
51% 78-75-9
46% 69-81-10
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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