BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
27-37 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
38-25 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Whitlock
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Whitlock | None-None | 3.05 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 1.98 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.05
ERA
Ldr 1.98
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
45%
RAYS
55%
RED SOX
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
BOS By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BOS By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
BOS @ TB
4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026
TB @ BOS
1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
TB @ BOS
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.409
OPS
▲
.728
2
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8350.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+354.0% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+31.9%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+16.7%
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.0
3
TB Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.8 / 6.6
12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 9.0
2.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
9.4 / 10.6
16.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.7 / 4.3
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BOS
TB
BOS
ML
58%
95-68
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
47%
76-87
ATS
60%
97-66
58%
93-67
55%
90-73
48%
79-84
TTL
47%
73-81-9
46%
72-83-5
51%
78-75-10
47%
74-83-6
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