Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Guardians NYY @ CLE

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

38-26  |  Road

7
FINAL
Mon, Jun 8 • 6:40 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

37-30  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
David Bednar None-None 3.90 -- 1.2 3
Cade Smith None-None 2.67 -- 1.2 3
None-None W-L None-None
3.90 ERA Ldr 2.67
-- WHIP --
1.2 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.2
3 K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
50%
📊
GUARDIANS
50%
YANKEES --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

40.1%

Guardians Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

NYY By 1-2 runs

16.3%

NYY By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
NEW YORK
5
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim Guardians (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 10, 2026 NYY @ CLE 8 - 4
Jun 9, 2026 NYY @ CLE 3 - 2
Jun 8, 2026 NYY @ CLE 7 - 5
Jun 4, 2026 CLE @ NYY 1 - 2
Jun 3, 2026 CLE @ NYY 5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Cleveland CLE
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
1.041 ▲
OPS
.696
2
Home Runs
▲ 162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8000.0% more
Cleveland: 162.0 vs New York: 2.0
Walks (L5) +23.2% more
Cleveland: 2.3 vs New York: 1.9
Runs per Game (Season) +53.4% more
New York: 9.0 vs Cleveland: 4.2
Home Runs (L5) +44.4% more
New York: 1.5 vs Cleveland: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 4.0 7
CLE Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.1 2.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.1 / 8.2 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 7.4 10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 14.4 11.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.3 / 1.9 6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
NYY
CLE
NYY
ML
54% 87-74
47% 76-85
49% 80-82
52% 85-77
ATS
58% 93-68
59% 95-66
59% 95-67
53% 86-76
TTL
55% 88-71-2
53% 81-73-7
43% 69-90-2
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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