Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Padres CIN @ SD

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

31-33  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Jun 8 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

33-31  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Tejay Antone
STARTING PITCHER

Tejay Antone

#70 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tejay Antone None-None 3.46 -- 1.0 --
Mason Miller None-None 0.98 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
3.46 ERA Ldr 0.98
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
50%
📊
PADRES
50%
REDS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Diego)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

30.9%

Padres Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

CIN By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

7.8%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4
CINCINNATI
6
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Padres (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 SD @ CIN 3 - 7
Sep 1, 2026 SD @ CIN 3 - 4
Aug 31, 2026 SD @ CIN 5 - 0
Jun 10, 2026 CIN @ SD 4 - 5
Jun 9, 2026 CIN @ SD 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.699
OPS
▲ .925
213 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +46.0% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season) +22.6%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Cincinnati: 69.9%
Slugging Pct (Season) +16.9%
San Diego: 56.3% vs Cincinnati: 39.4%
Batting Avg (Season) +9.9%
San Diego: 32.8% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 4.0 2
SD Score 6.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.6 / 8.7 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.2 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 9.1 / 15.0 15.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.9 / 5.9 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
CIN
SD
CIN
ML
51% 85-83
55% 88-71
51% 85-82
49% 79-81
ATS
54% 91-77
54% 86-73
55% 92-75
50% 80-80
TTL
51% 82-80-6
53% 81-73-5
54% 86-74-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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