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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

27-36  |  Road

1
FINAL
Mon, Jun 8 • 6:40 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

37-25  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryan Baker
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Baker

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Greg Weissert None-None 3.91 -- 0.1 1
Bryan Baker None-None 2.05 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.91 ERA Ldr 2.05
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
60%
📊
RAYS
40%
RED SOX --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 59%
Under 0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

40.1%

Rays Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

BOS By 1-2 runs

16.3%

BOS By 3-4 runs

10.6%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BOSTON
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 BOS @ TB 4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026 TB @ BOS 1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026 TB @ BOS 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Tampa Bay TB
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.409
OPS
▲ .728
2
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8350.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +354.0% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +31.9%
Tampa Bay: 72.8% vs Boston: 40.9%
Walks (L5) +18.3% more
Tampa Bay: 3.6 vs Boston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 2.0 1
TB Score 3.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.7 / 7.9 7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 8.5 10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 9.1 / 12.4 10.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.0 1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BOS
TB
BOS
ML
58% 95-68
50% 80-80
58% 95-68
47% 76-87
ATS
60% 97-66
58% 93-67
55% 90-73
48% 79-84
TTL
47% 73-81-9
46% 72-83-5
51% 78-75-10
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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