PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
35-30 | Road
5
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
32-34 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Patrick Corbin
#46 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.25 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Patrick Corbin | None-None | 4.55 | -- | 3.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.25 Ldr
ERA
4.55
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
60%
BLUE JAYS
40%
PHILLIES
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
TOR @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
TOR @ PHI
7 - 5
Aug 7, 2026
TOR @ PHI
5 - 4
Jun 10, 2026
PHI @ TOR
7 - 4
Jun 9, 2026
PHI @ TOR
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.724
▲
OPS
.692
3
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+27.8% more
Philadelphia: 1.8
vs
Toronto: 1.3
Walks (L5)
+21.4% more
Philadelphia: 3.5
vs
Toronto: 2.8
Slugging Pct (Season)
+5.7%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Toronto: 38.1%
OPS (Season)
+3.2%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.0
5
TOR Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.5 / 8.8
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 9.7
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
16.6 / 15.8
12.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.5
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PHI
TOR
PHI
ML
46%
74-87
59%
97-67
50%
80-80
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
90-71
65%
107-57
49%
79-81
51%
83-81
TTL
51%
80-76-5
57%
88-67-9
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-76-9
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