BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
31-34 | Road
4
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
31-34 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 1.00 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Louis Varland | None-None | 0.26 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.00
ERA
Ldr 0.26
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
53%
BLUE JAYS
47%
ORIOLES
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Baltimore
BALTIMORE
Toronto
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Sim
Proj Runs:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
TOR @ BAL
2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026
TOR @ BAL
3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026
BAL @ TOR
1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026
BAL @ TOR
3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026
BAL @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Toronto
TOR
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.711
▲
OPS
.692
199
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+45.4% more
Baltimore: 1.7
vs
Toronto: 1.0
Home Runs (Season)
+23.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.3% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Toronto: 4.0
OPS (Season)
+1.9%
Baltimore: 71.1%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
6.0
4
TOR Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.7 / 9.1
10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.7
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 6.1
10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
15.9 / 16.0
18.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.0
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BAL
TOR
BAL
ML
46%
74-87
53%
83-73
50%
80-80
57%
90-69
ATS
56%
90-71
61%
95-60-1
49%
79-81
57%
90-68-1
TTL
51%
80-76-5
54%
81-70-5
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-75-6
Contextual Game News
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