NEW YORK
METSNYM
28-36 | Road
7
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
33-30 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Williams | None-None | 5.57 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 2.37 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.57
ERA
Ldr 2.37
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
67%
PADRES
33%
METS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.6%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
New York
NEW YORK
San Diego
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Loss
33% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Proj Runs:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
SD @ NYM
2 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
SD @ NYM
5 - 2
Aug 17, 2026
SD @ NYM
1 - 2
Jun 7, 2026
NYM @ SD
7 - 3
Jun 6, 2026
NYM @ SD
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.705
OPS
▲
.925
204
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+39.2% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+22.0%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
New York: 70.5%
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.6% more
San Diego: 8.4
vs
New York: 7.0
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.8%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
New York: 39.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
3.0
7
SD Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
4.9 / 7.8
7.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.4
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 7.0
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
7.7 / 13.5
12.0 / 26.0
Walks
2.4 / 3.0
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
NYM
SD
NYM
ML
51%
85-83
50%
79-80
51%
85-82
48%
76-83
ATS
54%
91-77
58%
93-66
55%
92-75
49%
78-81
TTL
51%
82-80-6
55%
80-66-13
54%
86-74-6
51%
74-72-13
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