BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
27-35 | Road
1
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
37-26 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Slaten
#63 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Slaten | None-None | 6.17 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
| David Bednar | None-None | 4.15 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.17
ERA
Ldr 4.15
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
50%
YANKEES
50%
RED SOX
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
71%
Under 0
29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
BOS By 1-2 runs
10.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
5.4%
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.4%
NYY By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
New York
7
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Boston
BOSTON
New York
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Proj Runs:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
New York
NYY
2
▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.409
OPS
▲
1.041
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+800.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Slugging Pct (Season)
+34.4%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Boston: 25.0%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+28.8%
New York: 44.7%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Batting Avg (Season)
+25.8%
New York: 37.5%
vs
Boston: 11.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.0
1
NYY Score
7.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 8.8
10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.2
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 7.8
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 14.6
18.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.3 / 4.0
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BOS
NYY
BOS
ML
47%
76-85
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
47%
76-87
ATS
59%
95-66
58%
93-67
53%
86-76
48%
79-84
TTL
53%
81-73-7
46%
72-83-5
53%
82-72-7
47%
74-83-6
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