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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

31-32  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Jun 7 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

34-28  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Moll None-None 2.96 -- -- --
Riley O'Brien None-None 3.68 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.96 Ldr ERA 3.68
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
33%
📊
CARDINALS
67%
REDS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (St. Louis)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

30.9%

Cardinals Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

CIN By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

7.8%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4
CINCINNATI
6
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
CINCINNATI
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Win
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Proj Runs:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 STL @ CIN 10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026 STL @ CIN 4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026 STL @ CIN 3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026 STL @ CIN 2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026 CIN @ STL 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.699 ▲
OPS
.691
213 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +28.5% more
St. Louis: 10.4 vs Cincinnati: 8.1
Total Bases (L5) +24.2% more
St. Louis: 15.6 vs Cincinnati: 12.5
Home Runs (L5) +15.0% more
St. Louis: 1.1 vs Cincinnati: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season) +8.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 4.0 3
STL Score 6.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 10.4 / 8.1 6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.0 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 8.8 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 12.5 11.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.5 / 4.8 0.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CIN
STL
CIN
ML
53% 85-74
55% 88-71
52% 84-77
49% 79-81
ATS
56% 89-70
54% 86-73
53% 85-76
50% 80-80
TTL
46% 68-81-10
53% 81-73-5
50% 76-75-10
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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