WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
33-32 | Road
1
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
33-31 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Riley Cornelio
#74 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Taylor Clarke
#45 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Cornelio | None-None | 6.75 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Taylor Clarke | None-None | 1.67 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.75
ERA
Ldr 1.67
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
67%
DIAMONDBACKS
33%
NATIONALS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
19.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
7.8%
ARI By 3-4 runs
3.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
7
WASHINGTON
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Washington
WASHINGTON
Arizona
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
B
Sim
Proj Runs:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
ARI @ WSH
7 - 10
Jul 25, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 5
Jul 24, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 2
Jun 7, 2026
WSH @ ARI
1 - 5
Jun 6, 2026
WSH @ ARI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.246
Avg (AVG)
.246
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.744
▲
OPS
.720
210
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+63.6% more
Washington: 2.1
vs
Arizona: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+62.0% more
Washington: 0.8
vs
Arizona: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+51.0% more
Washington: 16.7
vs
Arizona: 8.2
Hits (L5)
+40.7% more
Washington: 9.0
vs
Arizona: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
7.0
1
ARI Score
3.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.3 / 9.0
9.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 2.1
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 7.1
7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
8.2 / 16.7
16.0 / 8.0
Walks
4.5 / 3.2
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
WSH
ARI
WSH
ML
54%
87-74
57%
92-69
54%
86-74
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-68
56%
89-71
57%
91-70
TTL
52%
80-73-8
50%
77-78-6
49%
73-77-9
42%
65-90-6
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